“I kind of think of ads as a last resort for us as a business model.” — Sam Altman, 2024
On January 16, 2026: OpenAI announced it will begin testing ads in ChatGPT.
While the pilot is currently invitation-only for major partners, we’ve all seen this movie before.
PREDICTIONS
- The Novelty Premium: “Brand awareness” CPMs will be astronomical compared to native/in-feed placements. However, they will initially deliver higher brand lift as a new consumer ad format.
- The “Black Box”: No 3rd-party verification of audience delivery.
- Attribution Lag: CPCs may benchmark to Search, but as a mid-funnel channel, ChatGPT will lag on conversion efficiency. Eventually, they will develop a CPA model akin to affiliate marketing.
- Measurement Gaps: Expect a handful of “clean room” tests that are impractical for 99% of advertisers. We will see a fast move toward view-through / modeled conversions (CAPI-like integrations).
- The End Game: OpenAI will close the loop inside their walled garden. They want conversions occurring within the app—Shopping/Research mode is the natural place to start.
ADVICE FOR BRANDS
If you can access the inventory, develop a pre/post survey of ChatGPT users to measure the lift in perception between paid vs. ad-supported users. Incorporate tools to track AI visibility and sentiment to separate paid from organic changes in brand equity.
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